Season’s Greetings

The holidays are knocking on the door, which will result in  a drop in both the inventory and buyer demand. 

Orange County Housing Summary

• The active listing inventory decreased by 229 homes in the past two-weeks, down 5%, and now totals 3,944, below 4,000 homes for the first time since January. It is the lowest level for an end to October since 2012. COVID-19 is not suppressing the inventory; from mid-September to mid-October there were 22% more homes that came on the market compared to last year. Last year, there were 5,921 homes on the market, 1,977 additional homes, or 50% more. 

• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 134 pending sales in the past two-weeks, down 4%, and now totals 3,019. COVID-19 has no effect on demand. Record low rates are fueling today’s exceptional demand. Last year, there were 2,275 pending sales, 25% fewer than today.

• The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County decreased from 40 days to 39, a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days). It was at 78 days last year, much slower than today.

• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an expected market time of 29 days. This range represents 34% of the active inventory and 47% of demand.

• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 25 days, a hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 27% of demand.

• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 40 days, a hot Seller’s Market.

• For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time decreased from 55 to 50 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 61 to 62 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 109 to 116 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 194 to 255 days.

• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 39% of the inventory and only 17% of demand.

• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.3% of all listings and 0.4% of demand. There are only 6 foreclosures and 7 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 13 total distressed homes on the active market, down 6 from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 54 total distressed homes on the market, more than today.

• There were 3,336 closed residential resales in September, 30% more than August 2019’s 2,564 closed sales. September marked a 6% increase compared to August 2020. The sales to list price ratio was 98.4% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.1% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.1%. That means that 99.8% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

Data Supplied By:

Steven Thomas

Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences